“It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts” – Sherlock Holmes (Arthur Conan Doyle)
I’ve always been baffled by strategy programs that teach students to start by crafting goals and objectives. It’s the worst possible way to build strategy.
The approach reinforces confirmation bias. We then seek out evidence that supports our beliefs and ignore or reject data that disproves them.
It also pushes us towards anchoring – the tendency to jump to conclusions too early in a decision-making process.
If we start in discovery mode, our strategy is more likely to reflect reality. To do this, we need to;
- explore and interrogate the data and be agnostic about the outcomes
- gain different perspectives, from inside and outside our organisation
- use falsification bias to actively look for evidence that disproves the prevailing point of view.